Karp Real Estate

North Shore Market Watch - Kenilworth and Lake Forest

This is my 5th posting in a series about the suburbs on the North Shore of Chicago.  Look at previous posts to see how the North Shore compares to the state of Illinois, the whole Chicago metropolitan area, and the city of Chicago.  So far, I've already posted statistics for Deerfield, Evanston, Glencoe and Highland Park.

Kenilworth

• The number of homes sold in Kenilworth increased from 33 sales in 2010 to 35 sales in 2011.  All of the sales were single family homes.
• Two of the 35 sales were shorts sales, and the rest were traditional sales.
• There is 12 months of inventory in Kenilworth, which means that it is still a buyers’ market with supply exceeding demand.  This is slightly higher than the North Shore average of 11+ months.
• There are 6 homes in pre-foreclosure in Kenilworth and one that is bank-owned.  This represents 0.9% of the total housing units (TNU) in Kenilworth.  There were 9 distressed properties in Kenilworth in July 2011, so this is an improvement.
• The median price increased from $1.34 million to $1.6 million. 

Kenilworth is a very small (and expensive) area of less than 900 homes.  All of the statistics for Kenilworth are based on a much smaller number of homes than the other communities, so it is not really appropriate to make direct comparisons.  Even though the median price increased in this community, I think it is too early to say that real estate values have really gone up. All of the other indicators suggest that Kenilworth is not completely out of the woods yet, though things are moving in the right direction.  The recent improvement in interest rates on jumbo loans will definitely help this market turn around.

Lake Forest

• Lake Forest sales decreased by 9% in 2011 versus 2010.  Single family home sales declined by 10 homes from 217 to 207, -4.6%.  Condo/townhome sales dropped by 24.2%, from 62 units in 2010 to 47 in 2011. 
• Almost 90% of the sales in 2011 were traditional sales.
• Inventory levels are still rather high, with more than 16 months of inventory for single family homes and 18 months for condos/townhomes.  This is much higher than the North Shore average of 11+ months for single family and 13+ months for condos/townhomes.
• Tax records show that there are 48 homes in pre-foreclosure and 15 bank-owned properties, for a total of 63 distressed properties.  This represents about 0.8% of total housing units (THU) in Lake Forest.  Last July there were 69 distressed properties in Lake Forest, according to the tax records.
• The median price of a single family home increased in Lake Forest by 3.7%, while the condo/townhome median price dropped by 23.2%.

The statistics for this community are mixed.  On the negative side, sales decreased versus year ago and inventory levels are high.  On the plus side, not a lot of distressed properties (though the numbers are about the same as 6 months ago) and the median price for single family homes has improved.  Overall, I think the turnaround for Lake Forest is slightly behind Highland Park.  I expect sales to increase in 2012 with prices declining and then possibly stabilizing toward the end of the year.

More to come.

Thank you for reading! If you want to know what is going on in your local market and why, please contact me directly.

To find any property for sale in the Chicago area, click here.

For up-to-the minute market information, including recent sales, on any North Shore community, click here.

Nancy's Chicago North Shore - Real Estate Market Update

This is the first in a series of posts about the real estate market on Chicago’s North Shore.  For this analysis I have been reviewing the year-end data for the following communities:

Deerfield, Evanston, Glencoe, Highland Park, Kenilworth, Lake Forest,  Northbrook, Skokie, Wilmette, and Winnetka. 

Before I get into specifics for each of these communities, this post includes some statistics about Illinois and the greater Chicago area for comparison to the North Shore:

Illinois

• December 2011 represented the 6^th month in a row with an increase in the number of homes sold in Illinois, according to the Illinois Association of Realtors.
• The total number of sales for the year was down versus 2010 by 0.1%, which basically means that the number of sales were about the same.   Some people that follow the real estate market may point out that 2010 sales were slightly inflated by the incentive of the first-time-buyer tax credit that was in effect during the first quarter of the year.  On the other hand, if you do the math, the current interest rates provide a much better long-term savings for buyers than those tax credits.
• The median price of a home in 2011 declined versus 2010 in Illinois by 9.2%

Chicago PMSA

(The Chicago PMSA, as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau, includes the counties of Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will)

• The number of homes sold in 2011 increased versus 2010 by 1.3%. (Better than the state of Illinois).
• The median price of a home declined by 11.9%. (worse than the state).

The City of Chicago

• The number of homes sold in 2011 declined by 6.2%. (worse than the state and the PMSA)
• The median price declined by 13.8%. (worse than the state and the PMSA)

Now when we look at the North Shore and see that total home sales increased in 2011 by 1.3% over the prior year.  This “bucks the trend” for the state, matches the Chicago PMSA, and is much better than the city!  Sales of single family homes on the North Shore increased by 2.5% in 2011, while condo/townhome sales actually declined by 1.3%.

It is my personal observation that the condo/townhome market has suffered much more than other types of properties this past year with prices taking a much harder hit than single family homes.  This is not only due to economic conditions – I believe that demographics play a factor as well.  Baby boomers that are now empty nesters are not rushing out to buy condos as quickly as their parents did back in the 1980’s.  That may explain why the numbers in the city are so much worse than the Chicago PMSA.

Tomorrow I will start posting information about specific communities on the North Shore.

Thank you for reading! If you want to know what is going on in your local market and why, please contact me directly.

To find any property for sale in the Chicago area, click here.

For up-to-the minute market information, including recent sales, on any North Shore community, click here.

 

Scorecard: market update for the North Shore Communities

After reading my recent series of posts providing an update on the North Shore real estate market, you may still be wondering how the various communities compare to one another.  So, here it is, the executive summary…

This is my personal ranking of the North Shore communities based on these factors within each suburb:

• Number of distressed properties that sold in the past 12 months (foreclosures and short sales)
• Number of properties currently in pre-foreclosure situation now versus 6 months ago.
• Number of bank-owned properties either on the market, or going on the market soon versus 6 months ago.

The communities at the top will see price recovery before the ones lower on the list….Skokie and Evanston at not looking good with an high and increasing levels of distressed properties.

1.Kenilworth

2.Winnetka

3. Glencoe

4. Lake Forest

5.  (4-way tie) Glenview, Northbrook, Northfield, and Riverwoods

9.  (3-way tie) Highland Park, Deerfield, and Wilmette

12. Evanston

13. Skokie

FYI, if you are ever interested in seeing information on recent sales in any suburb on the North Shore, you can find it by clicking here.  Then just click on the community of interest.

Thank you for reading!!  New topic next time, I promise.

Nancy S. Karp

 

To find any property for sale in the Chicago area, click here.

Market Update: Highland Park, Kenilworth, and Lake Forest

This is the 5th article in a series I am writing about the real estate market on Chicago's North Shore.  In these blog posts I talk about "shadow inventory."  These are homes that are in pre-foreclosure (the owners are 3 months or more behind on their payments) or homes that have already gone through the foreclosure process and are bank-owned.  Some of these homes may already be available for sale, but most of them are not.  They are called "shadow inventory" because although they are not for sale at this point in time, and many of them will be for sale in the coming months at discounted prices (as short sales or bank-owned properties) because of their distressed status.  When these types of properties are for sale, this causes prices decline.  So the fact that these properties are potentially going to hit the market in the coming months is NOT A GOOD THING.

Highland Park

 Shadow inventory in Highland Park increased to 121 properties from 113 during the past 6 months; 23 % of these are bank owned and 77% are in pre-foreclosure.  This isn't a huge increase, but it still isn't a good sign for this market.  

A total of 54 distressed properties were sold during the past 12 months – less than half were bank owned and the rest were short sales.  The good news for Highland Park is that the number of distressed properties sold over the past 12 months as a percentage of the current shadow inventory is 44%, which is above the North Shore average of 38%.   

Highland Park - 12 months ending 7.26.2011	Bank-owned Properties Sold	Short Sales	Total distressed property sales
Total	26	28	54
% single family homes	100%	89%	94%
% condos/townhomes	0%	11%	6%

 

 

Overall, I think that pricing recovery for Highland Park is going to be a little bit slower than for its neighboring communities to the North and South.

Kenilworth

This is a very small and exclusive area.  The shadow inventory in Kenilworth increased by 28% since January.  I know that sounds like a lot, but in reality it only “jumped” from 7 properties to 9.  (This is why you have to be careful when you hear people quoting statistics – they can be very misleading!).  There is one bank owned property and 8 pre-foreclosure properties.  Yes, believe it or not, there are 8 households living in Kenilworth that have not been paying their mortgage!

During the past 12 months there were 3 distressed properties that sold in Kenilworth – 1 bank owned property and 2 short sales.  The distressed sales are 33% of shadow inventory, which is below the North Shore average.  But again, we are talking about very small numbers in a very small community.

Kenilworth - 12 months ending 7.26.2011	Bank-owned properties Sold	Short Sales	Total distressed property sales
Total	1	2	3
% single family homes	100%	100%	100%

 

 

Prices will probably stabilize in Kenilworth before anywhere else on the North Shore.  However, just like the other communities, the presence of bank owned properties will continue to put some downward pressure on prices. With only one bank owned property right now, things aren’t too bad.

 

Lake Forest

Lake Forest had a dramatic decrease in shadow inventory since January.  It went from 107 properties to 69.  This is a very good sign for the real estate market in Lake Forest.  Interestingly, only 26 distressed properties sold in the past 12 months in Lake Forest.  Almost 70% of these were short sales.

 

Lake Forest - 12 months ending 7.26.2011	Bank-owned properties Sold	Short Sales	Total distressed property sales
Total	8	18	26
% single family homes	87%	94%	92%
% condos/townhomes	13%	6%	8%

 

 

The number of distressed sales relative to the shadow inventory is about 38%.  This is equal to the North Shore average.  I think that this benchmark is outweighed by the dramatic decline in overall shadow inventory during the past 6 months.  This community may see prices stabilize in the near future if the number of distressed properties continues to decline at this rate.

If you are interested in seeing the complete report, just contact me and I will send you document that includes all the info for the North Shore in one article.

Next post will cover Northbrook and Northfield...

Thank you for reading!!

Nancy S. Karp

 

To find any property for sale in the Chicago area, click here.