Karp Real Estate

North Shore Market Watch - Wilmette and Winnetka

This is my 8th and final post in the series orbout real estate housing trends on Chicago's North Shore (until I repeat this exercise in 6 months!).  I did leave out some communities that are also part of the North Shore this time around.  If you are interested in this info for Northfield, Glenview, or another community on the Shore,  let me know and I can pull the numbers for you.  The Spring market has been SOOOO busy that I had to cut back on my research a little bit in order to continue to provide my clients with the top notch service they deserve. 

I just pulled the data for January 2012...the number of homes that went under contract in January 2012 increased on the North Shore (same communities that I reported on in these recent posts) by over 44% versus 2011!!!  So things are looking up. 

Wilmette

• The number of homes sold in Wilmette declined in 2011 versus 2010 by 1.8%. 
• Over 90% of the Wilmette home sales in 2011 were traditional sales.  Over 5% were bank-owned properties and almost 4% were short sales.
• Inventory for single family homes in Wilmette is just under 7 months, which is the closest to a balanced market (experts say that a “normal” or balanced market has 5 – 7 months of inventory) on the North Shore.  The inventory for condos and townhomes is over 12 months in Wilmette.
• There are 51 homes in pre-foreclosures right now in Wilmette and 22 bank-owned properties for a total of 72 distressed properties.  This is a decline in distressed properties from last July when this number was 92.  Distressed properties in Wilmette are 0.7% of the total housing units (THU) in Wilmette.  Wilmette and Winnetka are tied with the lowest/best percentage of distressed properties as a percent of THU.
• The median price of single family homes in Wilmette fell slightly by 1.5% versus 2010.  Condo/townhome prices slipped by 8.8% - this is the only community that had a price decline of less than 10%.

The market for single family homes in Wilmette is strong.  Sales and prices declined only slightly and the inventory level suggests that it is NOT a buyers’ market anymore - great news! The condo/townhome market is not doing as well, though it is much better than all of the other North Shore communities. 

Winnetka

• The number of homes sold during 2011 in Winnetka increased by 6.7% versus 2010.  For single family homes the increase was 8.2%.
• Almost 95% of the 2011 sales were traditional sales.  The remainder of the sales was equally divided between short sales and bank-owned properties.
• The home inventory in Winnetka is over 9 months for single family homes and almost 16 months for condos/townhomes.
• There are 22 homes in pre-foreclosure in Winnetka, according to public records.  And are 7 bank-owner properties.  This is actually an INCREASE in distressed properties versus last July when there was a total of 20 distressed properties.  Winnetka is tied with Wilmette; both communities have the lowest/best number of distressed properties as a percentage of total housing units (THU) of 0.7%.
• The median price of a single family home in Winnetka fell by almost 9%.  For townhomes and condos the median price fell by over 21%. 

The Winnetka market is doing quite well.  Sales increase versus last year, and there are very few distressed properties.  However, the inventory levels suggest that the number of sellers still exceeds the number of buyers, so it still may be a buyers’ market.  Median prices also fell by more than I would expect given the relatively low level of distressed properties.  I expect to see the number of sales continue to increase and price stabilization over the next several months in this community.

Thank you for reading! If you’d like to understand how this information affects you and your home buying/selling decisions, contact me directly for a consultation.

 

To find any property for sale in the Chicago area, click here.

For up-to-the minute market information, including recent sales, on any North Shore community, click here.

 

 

North Shore Market Watch - Northbrook

This is the 6th post in a series about the local real estate market on Chicago's North Shore.

Northbrook

• The number of homes sold in Northbrook increased by 3.4% in 2011.  Most of the increase was in the townhome/condo market where sales increased by 9.6%.  Single family home sales increased by 1 house in 2011 compared to 2010.
• Almost 23% of the home sales were distressed properties in 2011.  Over 12% were bank-owned properties and over 10% were short sales.
• There is 9 months of inventory for single family homes and over 11 months for condos/townhomes.  This reflects a buyers’ market, but it is better than the North Shore averages.
• Northbrook has 138 homes in pre-foreclosure and 74 bank-owner properties, for a total of 212.  These distressed properties represent 1.6% of the total housing units (THU) in Northbrook.  This is slightly worse than the North Shore as a whole, which has distressed properties at 1.3% of THU. Last July there was a total of 218 distressed properties in Northbrook, so not a lot of improvement on this statistic.
• The median price for a single family home fell by 6.9% in Northbrook, while condos/townhomes saw a decline of 12.8%.

Although Northbrook had an increase in the number of homes sold, this community still has some obstacles to overcome.  Similar to Deerfield, once the distressed properties are out of the market, the downward pressure on prices will relax and we will see some stabilization in prices.  For at least the first half of 2012 I expect to see continued price declines in Northbrook.

Thank you for reading! If you want to know what is going on in your local market and why, please contact me directly.

To find any property for sale in the Chicago area, click here.

For up-to-the minute market information, including recent sales, on any North Shore community, click here.

 

North Shore Market Update - Glencoe and Highland Park

This is 4th posting in a series about the housing market on Chicago's North Shore.

Glencoe

• Glencoe had a terrific year with 24.5% more homes sold in 2011 than in 2010. 
• Less than 15% of the home sales were distressed properties (short sales or bank-owned).  More of the distressed property sales were short sales than bank-owned properties.
• Inventory levels are a little high for both single family homes and condos/townhomes at just over 9 months for all types of homes.  This is the only negative indicator for Glencoe right now.
• The number of homes in pre-foreclosure or bank-owned declined slightly from 27 last July to 25 now.  This is less than 0.8% of the total housing units (THU) in Glencoe.
• The median price of a single family home in Glencoe stayed exactly the same in 2011 versus 2010.  Median prices for condos/townhomes went up in 2011 versus 2010, but this was based on only 5 sales, so I am not going to report that number. 

All of the measures above are very positive.  I expect sales to continue to increase in Glencoe and as this activity increases, we may see some modest price increases in the coming year.

 Highland Park

• The number of homes sold declined by 2.8% in Highland Park in 2011 versus 2010.
• Over 90% of the sales were traditional sales (not short sales or bank owned properties). 
• Inventory levels in Highland Park are high, with over 12 months of inventory for single family homes and over 19 months of inventory for condos/townhomes.
• Similar to Glencoe, the Shadow Inventory (homes in pre-foreclosure or bank owned) is 0.8%  of toal housing unit (THU) in Highland Park – this is good.  Last July there were 121 properties in pre-foreclosure or bank owned.  Now it is down to 93.
• The median price for single family homes in Highland Park declined very slightly, by 1.1% versus 2010.  Condo/townhome median price grew by 33.6% (which is a bit of an anomaly with over 19 months of inventory).  

While the statistics for Highland Park are not quite as good as Glencoe, I think that this market is also on a positive path, maybe a few months behind their neighbors to the South.  I expect sales to increase and then prices should begin to stabilize in the second half of the year.

More to come.

Thank you for reading! If you want to know what is going on in your local market and why, please contact me directly.

To find any property for sale in the Chicago area, click here.

For up-to-the minute market information, including recent sales, on any North Shore community, click here.

North Shore Market Update - Evanston

This is third article in a series about residential real estate on Chicago's North Shore. Watch for more communities in subsequent posts!

Evanston

• The number of homes sold in Evanston declined by 9.7% in 2011 compared to 2010.  For single family homes the decline was 7.5% while condo/townhome sales declined by 11.7%.  This community is not keeping up with the sales activity in the state, the greater Chicago area, or even within the city of Chicago.  In fact, Evanston had the worst performance on this measure among all of the communities that I analyzed. (Though Lake Forest was not far behind with a 9% decline in sales in 2011.)
• Similar to Deerfield, over 20% of the sales in 2011 were distressed properties.  In Evanston the majority of the distressed sales were bank owned properties.
• Inventory for single family homes in Evanston is down to 7.4 months, which is very good.  Inventory of condos and townhomes in Evanston is 14 months, which is not good at all.
• The number of bank-owned homes and homes in pre-foreclosure in Evanston dropped since last July.  There were over 400 distressed properties according to public records, and now it is down to 340.  These distressed properties represent 1% of total housing units (THU) in Evanston.  For the North Shore as a whole, this is about 1.3%, so this is a positive sign for Evanston.
• The median price for a single family home in Evanston dropped by 2.3%, not bad compared to the state, the greater Chicago area, and the city of Chicago.  However prices for condos and townhomes dropped by almost 15% in Evanston. 

So, as in July when I did my last report, the city of Evanston is a tale of two cities.  Sales and prices for single family homes are showing modest declines, while condos and townhomes are showing dramatic declines.  Bottom line is that demand for condos and townhomes is still lagging.  The one positive for the Evanston market is that the inventory of distressed properties, the “Shadow Inventory”, has improved.

For 2012 I think we will see the number of home sales increasing in Evanston, but prices will continue to decline, especially in the condo/townhome market.

More to come.

Thank you for reading! If you want to know what is going on in your local market and why, please contact me directly.

To find any property for sale in the Chicago area, click here.

For up-to-the minute market information, including recent sales, on any North Shore community, click here.

 

 

Nancy's Chicago North Shore - Real Estate Market Update

This is the first in a series of posts about the real estate market on Chicago’s North Shore.  For this analysis I have been reviewing the year-end data for the following communities:

Deerfield, Evanston, Glencoe, Highland Park, Kenilworth, Lake Forest,  Northbrook, Skokie, Wilmette, and Winnetka. 

Before I get into specifics for each of these communities, this post includes some statistics about Illinois and the greater Chicago area for comparison to the North Shore:

Illinois

• December 2011 represented the 6^th month in a row with an increase in the number of homes sold in Illinois, according to the Illinois Association of Realtors.
• The total number of sales for the year was down versus 2010 by 0.1%, which basically means that the number of sales were about the same.   Some people that follow the real estate market may point out that 2010 sales were slightly inflated by the incentive of the first-time-buyer tax credit that was in effect during the first quarter of the year.  On the other hand, if you do the math, the current interest rates provide a much better long-term savings for buyers than those tax credits.
• The median price of a home in 2011 declined versus 2010 in Illinois by 9.2%

Chicago PMSA

(The Chicago PMSA, as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau, includes the counties of Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will)

• The number of homes sold in 2011 increased versus 2010 by 1.3%. (Better than the state of Illinois).
• The median price of a home declined by 11.9%. (worse than the state).

The City of Chicago

• The number of homes sold in 2011 declined by 6.2%. (worse than the state and the PMSA)
• The median price declined by 13.8%. (worse than the state and the PMSA)

Now when we look at the North Shore and see that total home sales increased in 2011 by 1.3% over the prior year.  This “bucks the trend” for the state, matches the Chicago PMSA, and is much better than the city!  Sales of single family homes on the North Shore increased by 2.5% in 2011, while condo/townhome sales actually declined by 1.3%.

It is my personal observation that the condo/townhome market has suffered much more than other types of properties this past year with prices taking a much harder hit than single family homes.  This is not only due to economic conditions – I believe that demographics play a factor as well.  Baby boomers that are now empty nesters are not rushing out to buy condos as quickly as their parents did back in the 1980’s.  That may explain why the numbers in the city are so much worse than the Chicago PMSA.

Tomorrow I will start posting information about specific communities on the North Shore.

Thank you for reading! If you want to know what is going on in your local market and why, please contact me directly.

To find any property for sale in the Chicago area, click here.

For up-to-the minute market information, including recent sales, on any North Shore community, click here.

 

Over 12,000 Homes Selling Each Day!

Below is a short article from today's KCM Blog. If you are thinking of buying or selling (or both),  I'd like to know what YOU are waiting for? 

Many believe that very few houses are selling and that almost no one can get a mortgage. We want to let everyone know that neither of these assumptions is true. Recently, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Homes Sales Report. According to the report there are, on average, 12,109 homes selling in the United States EACH and EVERY DAY! That means that approximately 12,000 houses sold yesterday, approximately 12,000 will sell today and approximately 12,000 will sell tomorrow. So the thinking that homes aren’t selling just isn’t true.

Another interesting fact in the report was that 72% of these transactions were accompanied by a mortgage. That means that approximately 8,719 people qualify for a mortgage on a daily basis in this country.

There are over 12,000 homes sold and over 8,000 mortgages granted every day. The real estate market is doing better than many believe.

Thank you for reading!  If you want to know what is going on in your local market and why, please contact me directly.

To find any property for sale in the Chicago area, click here.

For up-to-the minute market information, including recent sales, on any North Shore community, click here.

 

Advice for senior citizens considering a move.moving

There was a short article in the local paper recently with advice from a real estate agent in the area on this topic. I am in TOTAL disagreement with the response that this agent gave, and so here is my advice on this topic.

(FYI, this agent basically recommended that the seniors stay where they are until prices get better.)

For the most part, the majority of senior citizens do not have a mortgage. They have either lived in their home long enough to pay off their mortgage, or they may have downsized into a townhome or condo, with a low mortgage or no mortgage. Based on my experience working with seniors, I have found this to be very true. Of course there are exceptions to this - there always are when you make generalizations, but I'm using this assumption of no mortgage.

With this in mind, if you (or your loved) one are thinking about moving into a smaller space, or moving to senior community with planned activities and meals, or if you they need to be in an assisted living facility, you should take action to sell your current home immediately. While it is true that you will not receive the windfall dollars that you would have if they sold during the bubble of 2005/2006, you can sell at a reasonable price, the new normal, of today's market. If you have lived in you single family home for over 30 years, you will not be "losing" any money by selling in today's market. Prices are definitely higher than they were back then.

If you are selling a townhome or condo, or any place you have lived for less than 7 years, then you may end up selling below what you originally paid for the place, depending on when you bought, the condition of the property and the location. At the end of the day, you really need to think of this "loss" as the cost of living in that property. If you do the math, the dollar amount of the loss is probably less expensive than if you had been renting for all those years. And, if your money had been invested in the stock market during that same time period, you could be in the same position.

What I have learned from personal experience is that it is more important to get on with your life and live where you want/need to be than to worry about losing some cash on the sale of your home. I think this is especially true for seniors. Maintaining a single family home is a lot of work and it can be expensive. And if you are living alone, this can be an overwhelming burden. If you are having mobility issues, moving into a space without stairs can be a very positive change for you. If you live alone and don't drive anymore, there is no need for you to remain isolated in your home. There are many other options.

My last point is probably the most important. THE PRICES WE SAW IN 2005 AND 2006 ARE NOT COMING BACK ANY TIME SOON. I have heard this phrase too many times: "I want to wait until the market gets better." As I've said previously in this blog and to many people in person, we are going to continue to see declining prices until all of the distressed properties are sold. Experts are saying that there will be more foreclosures and short sales during the first quarter of 2012. And after that, at some point prices are expected to rise...but the annual increases will be at a rate of 1% o to 1.5% a year. That means it could be more than 20 years before we see those bubble prices again, if at all.

So, what are you waiting for?

Thanks for reading!

nsk

Nancy S. Karp

To find any property for sale in the Chicago area, click here.

For up-to-the minute market information, including recent sales, on any North Shore community, click here.

Will the 30-year Mortgage Disappear?

NOTE: THIS ARTICLE IS A REPRINT FROM THE KCM BLOG.  IT WAS POSTED YESTERDAY.  THIS IS ANOTHER REASON WHY ANYONE THINKING OF BUYING A HOME SHOULD NOT WAIT TOO LONG TO DO IT (ASSUMING THEY ARE GOING TO GET A MORTGAGE).  ALSO, IT IS A GOOD REASON WHY SELLERS SHOULD NOT WAIT EITHER - FEWER PEOPLE WILL BE ABLE TO QUALIFY FOR MORTGAGES IF THESE CHANGES ARE MADE! nsk

The federal government is reconsidering their involvement in the home mortgage process. They plan to still ‘guarantee’ certain mortgages. However, they appear to be redefining what they consider a ‘qualified purchaser’. They are discussing stricter lending guidelines in four different areas:

1. The type of mortgage
2. The minimum down payment
3. The debt ratios of the buyer
4. The FICO score of the purchaser

Today, we want to look at #1.

It appears that there is at least conversation about eliminating the 30 year fixed rate mortgage which has been a staple in this country’s housing industry for some time. Some in government want to duplicate the mortgage process of other countries. In Canada, for example, they don’t even have 30 year fix rate mortgages available. The vast majority of Canadian home loans have a 25 year payout but the interest rate is renegotiated every five years. If rates go down, you will wind up with a lower rate. If rates go up, you end up paying a higher rate. If you want a fixed rate mortgage for 25 years you pay a rate approximately two percentage points higher than the going rate at the time of your closing.

Would the same happen in this country? Last week, Housing Wire quoted Janis Bowdler, senior policy analyst at the National Council of La Raza:

“Without some form of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, replacements to support these popular loans, many first time borrowers will be shut out.

“Without that guarantee lenders would not offer 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, at least not at rates the average person could afford. Yes, some would be available but not for the average family but for those with a large amount of inherited wealth they can put to a large down payment.”

Why Is This Important?

You probably want to set your housing expense at the lowest number possible for the longest time possible. This may be the appropriate time to lock-in your long term housing expense as three things seem possible, if not likely, in the future:

• § Mortgage rates will increase from current historic lows
• § The 30 year fixed rate mortgage may disappear
• § Rents will return to historic norms of 3% annual increases 

Bottom Line

If you want to purchase a home of your own but are waiting to see where prices will go, consider what you could be giving up while you wait.

Scorecard: market update for the North Shore Communities

After reading my recent series of posts providing an update on the North Shore real estate market, you may still be wondering how the various communities compare to one another.  So, here it is, the executive summary…

This is my personal ranking of the North Shore communities based on these factors within each suburb:

• Number of distressed properties that sold in the past 12 months (foreclosures and short sales)
• Number of properties currently in pre-foreclosure situation now versus 6 months ago.
• Number of bank-owned properties either on the market, or going on the market soon versus 6 months ago.

The communities at the top will see price recovery before the ones lower on the list….Skokie and Evanston at not looking good with an high and increasing levels of distressed properties.

1.Kenilworth

2.Winnetka

3. Glencoe

4. Lake Forest

5.  (4-way tie) Glenview, Northbrook, Northfield, and Riverwoods

9.  (3-way tie) Highland Park, Deerfield, and Wilmette

12. Evanston

13. Skokie

FYI, if you are ever interested in seeing information on recent sales in any suburb on the North Shore, you can find it by clicking here.  Then just click on the community of interest.

Thank you for reading!!  New topic next time, I promise.

Nancy S. Karp

 

To find any property for sale in the Chicago area, click here.

Market Update: Skokie, Winnetka and Wilmette

This is the 7th and FINAL article in a series I have written about the real estate market on Chicago's North Shore.  I have been using the concept of "shadow inventory" to understand how much longer home prices will be declining in each community on the North Shore.  Shadow inventory refers to homes that are in pre-foreclosure (the owners are 3 months or more behind on their payments) and homes that have already gone through the foreclosure process and are bank-owned.  Some of these homes may already be available for sale, but most of them are not.  When they do hit the market, it will be at discounted prices (as short sales or bank-owned properties) because of their distressed status.  When these types of properties are for sale, this causes prices of other properties in the area to decline.  So the fact that these properties are potentially going to hit the market in the coming months is NOT A GOOD THING.

Skokie

Shadow inventory increased by almost 20% over the past 6 months to 589 properties in Skokie.  Almost 27% of these are bank-owned properties. There are 430 households that are behind in their mortgage payments in Skokie – that represents 30% of the pre-foreclosures on the whole North Shore!  Skokie seems to be hit hardest of all the communities on the North Shore with distressed properties.

Skokie - 12 months ending 7.26.2011	Bank-owned properties Sold	Short Sales	Total distressed property sales
Total	126	74	200
% single family homes	59%	61%	60%
% condos/townhomes	41%	39%	40%

 

 

Skokie leads all of the other North Shore communities with 200 distressed property sales during the past 12 months.  These sales are just under 34% of the size of the current shadow inventory.  If these trends continue in Skokie it will definitely be the last suburb on the North Shore to see an end to falling prices.

Wilmette

Wilmette saw shadow inventory increase by 24% to 92 properties.  About 76% of these are in pre-foreclosure, and the rest are bank-owned.

Wilmette - 12 months ending 7.26.2011	Bank-owned properties Sold	Short Sales	Total distressed property sales
Total	12	10	22
% single family homes	75%	80%	77%
% condos/townhomes	25%	20%	23%

 

 

On top of the increase in the shadow inventory, only 22 distressed properties were sold in the past 12 months.   This is only 24% of the size of the shadow inventory.  This means that it will take some time for Wilmette to recover from falling prices because the number of distressed properties in the “pipeline” is increasing and sales of distressed properties is relatively low in comparison. 

Winnetka

Winnetka had a total of 6 bank owner properties and 14 homes in pre-foreclosure as of July 26, 2011, for a total shadow inventory of 20 homes.  This is a decrease from 39 homes in January 2011, a good sign of recovery.

Winnetka - 12 months ending 7.26.2011	Bank-owned properties Sold	Short Sales	Total distressed property sales
Total	6	8	14
% single family homes	100%	88%	93%
% condos/townhomes	0%	12%	7%

 

 

There were 14 distressed properties sold during the past 12 months in Winnetka, which is 70% of the size of the current shadow inventory.  The declining shadow inventory AND the relatively strong sales of distressed properties indicate that this community is close to turning the corner on pricing!!

 

Thank you for reading!!!

To find any property for sale in the Chicago area click here.

To look at recent sales and other sales statistics for your community click here and then click on the map to specify the community you want to see.

nsk

Nancy S. Karp

 
 
nancy@nancykarp.com

@properties | Consultant, MBA, ePro, SFR, CREN |   

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